A laboratory experiment to monitor the contact state of a fault by transmission waves   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Naoto Yoshioka  Koji Iwasa 《Tectonophysics》2006,413(3-4):221-238

We performed a series of laboratory experiments in which elastic waves were transmitted across a simulated fault. Two types of experiments were carried out: (1) Normal Stress Holding Test (NSHT): normal stress was kept constant for about 3 h without shear stress and transmission waves were observed. (2) Shear Stress Increasing Test (SSIT): shear stress was gradually increased until a stick-slip event occurred. Transmission waves were continuously observed throughout the process of stress accumulation. We focused on the change in transmission waves during the application of shear stress and especially during precursory slips.It was found in NSHT that the amplitude of transmission waves linearly increased with the logarithm of stationary contact time. The increase amounted to a few percent after about 3 h. Creep at asperity contacts is responsible for this phenomenon. From a theoretical consideration, it was concluded that the real contact area increased with the logarithm of stationary contact time.We observed in SSIT a significant increase in wave amplitude with shear stress application. This phenomenon cannot be attributed to the time effect observed in NSHT. Instead, it can be explained by the mechanism of “junction growth” proposed by Tabor. Junction growth yields an increase in real contact area. It is required for junction growth to occur that the material in contact is already plastic under a purely normal loading condition. A computer simulation confirmed that this requirement was satisfied in our experiments. We also found that the rate at which the amplitude increased was slightly reduced prior to a stick-slip event. The onset time of the reduction well coincides with the onset of precursory slip. The cause of the reduction is attributed to the reset of stationary contact time due to displacement. This interpretation is supported by the result of NSHT. Taking the time of stationary contact in SSIT into account, we may expect the change in wave amplitude to be, at most, only a few percent. The observed slight reduction in increasing rate is, in this sense, reasonable. The static stiffness of the fault also decreases with precursory slip. It was also found that low frequency waves are a better indicator of precursory slip than high frequency waves. This might suggest that low frequency waves with longer wavelength are a better indicator of average behavior of faults. The problem, however, merits a further investigation. The shifts in phase were also found to be a good indicator of the change in contact state of the fault. The changes in both amplitude and phase of transmission waves are unifyingly understood through the theory of transmission coefficient presented by Pyrak-Nolte et al. Rough surfaces have a tendency to give larger stick-slips than smooth surfaces. The amount of precursory slip is larger for rough surfaces than for smooth surfaces. Although it was confirmed by a computer simulation that rough surfaces have larger contact diameters than smooth surfaces, the rigorous relationship between the surface roughness (contact diameter) and the amount of precursory slips was not established.  相似文献   

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model     

lvaro Gonzlez  Miguel Vzquez-Prada  Javier B. Gmez  Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.  相似文献   

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?     

Faisal Hossain 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(3):263-276

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.  相似文献   

基于模糊综合评判的动态路径行程时间预测模型   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张文胜  殷倩  吴立新  徐磊  臧志刚 《地理与地理信息科学》2006,22(4):25-28

针对城市交通路网的复杂性和不确定性,提出一种基于模糊综合评判的动态行程时间预测模型,将总行程时间分为行驶时间和交通延误时间两部分,分别介绍这两部分时间的预测模型,并利用该模型对一组模拟道路信息和路况信息进行实际预测,对预测结果进行比较和分析。研究表明该模型算法简捷实用,预测结果精度较高。  相似文献   

Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast     

Mastura Mahmud  Robert S. Ross 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2006,27(2):176-190

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.  相似文献   

Determination of specific yield using a water balance approach – case study of Torla Odha watershed in the Deccan Trap province, Maharastra State, India     

Dipankar Saha  A. K. Agrawal 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(4):625-635

Specific yield is an essential parameter for any groundwater management plan. Volumetric analysis in the domain of groundwater budgeting for the non-monsoon months has been undertaken for a typical watershed of the Deccan basalt province. The Torla Odha watershed covers an area of over 22 km² on a third-order tributary of the westerly flowing Bhima River. The watershed receives a normal annual rainfall of 643 mm. The entire water demand is supplied by dug wells, which penetrate a shallow aquifer. The specific yield was estimated by comparing the monthly net volume of water removed from the aquifer, with the volume of aquifer de-saturated, based on monthly water level data. The estimated specific yield ranges from 0.0019 in May to 0.0173 in November with an average value of 0.0093. A correlation of the groundwater levels with the detailed geology suggests that the higher specific yield value (0.017) corresponds to dewatering of the weathered zone within the shallow aquifer. The specific yield of the massive basalt immediately below the weathered zone varies from 0.0089 to 0.0103. The underlying vesicular basalt, which is dissected by sheet joints, has a relatively higher specific yield (0.0121). The massive basalt, which forms the base of the shallow aquifer system, has a lower specific yield from 0.0019 to 0.0022.

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Résumé Le débit spécifique est un paramètre essentiel pour tout plan de gestion des eaux souterraines. Les analyses volumétriques, dans le cadre des bilans hydriques des eaux en dehors des mois de mousson, ont été entreprises pour un bassin-versant typique de la province basaltique du Deccan. Le bassin-versant du Torla Odha couvre une superficie de 22 km², et alimente l’affluent du troisième ordre de la rivière Bhima, qui coule vers l’Ouest. La pluviométrie annuelle atteint 643 mm. Toute la demande en eau es assurée par des puits foncés pénétrant dans l’aquifère phréatique. Le débit spécifique a été estimé en comparant le volume net mensuel d’eau captée dans l’aquifère, avec le volume de l’aquifère dé-saturé, basé sur les données des niveaux piézométriques mensuels. Le débit spécifique estimé s’étend entre 0,0019 en Mai et 0.173 en Novembre; la moyenne se situe à 0,0093. Une corrélation entre les niveaux des eaux souterraines et la géologie, suggère que les débits spécifiques les plus importants (0,017) correspondent aux zones altérées de l’aquifère phréatique. Le débit spécifique du massif basaltique, immédiatement sous la zone altérée, varie entre 0,0089 et 0,0103. Le basalte vésiculaire, situé juste en dessous et traversé par des diaclases parallèles, possède un débit spécifique sensiblement plus élevé (0,0121). Le basalte massif, qui forme la base de l’aquifère phréatique, possède un débit spécifique moins important, compris entre 0,0019 et 0,0022.

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Resumen El rendimiento específico es un parámetro esencial para cualquier plan de manejo de aguas subterráneas. Se ha llevado a cabo el análisis volumétrico, en el entorno de balance de aguas subterráneas, para los meses sin monzón de una cuenca típica de la provincia de basaltos Deccan. La cuenca Rorla Odha cubre un área de 22 km² en un tributario de tercer orden del Río Bhima que fluye al oeste. La cuenca capta una lluvia anual normal de 643 mm. La totalidad de la demanda de agua es abastecida por pozos manuales que penetran un acuífero somero. Se estimó el rendimiento específico al comparar el volumen neto mensual de agua removido del acuífero con el volumen de agua de-saturado estimado a partir de datos de niveles de agua mensuales. Los valores estimados de rendimiento específico varían de 0.0019 en mayo a 0.0173 en noviembre con un valor promedio de 0.0093. La correlación de niveles de agua subterránea con la geología de detalle sugieren que el valor más alto (0.017) de rendimiento específico corresponden con el desaguado de la zona de intemperismo dentro del acuífero somero. El rendimiento específico del basalto masivo que se encuentra inmediatamente debajo de la zona de intemperismo varía de 0.0089 a 0.0103. El basalto vesicular subyacente, el cual está disectado por fracturas laminares, tiene un rendimiento específico relativamente más alto (0.0121). El basalto masivo, que forma la base del sistema de acuífero somero, tiene un rendimiento específico más bajo el cual varía de 0.0019 a 0.0022. Palabras clave: basalto Deccan. India. Rendimiento específico. Recarga de agua subterránea. Balance hídrico.

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基于预测的边缘检测方法   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王晖  卢健 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2005,30(1):23-26

提出了一种基于预测的、有一定自适应性的边缘检测方法。介绍了其原理和算法实现过程。通过计算两个相邻像素的灰度值的均值、均方差和梯度来预测下一个像素的灰度值，比较预测值和真实值来判断下一个像素是否是边界点。通过与现有同类算法的比较，证明了该算法的优越性。  相似文献   

地震属性分析中水平切片的应用   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

国洪伟  陈勃  刘和芝  刘伟  张秀丽 《物探化探计算技术》2005,27(1):10-15

利用地震数据体中含有的丰富地质信息,可以有效地进行储层预测。层拉平水平切片地层学解释方法是先将地震剖面目的层段做层拉平处理,然后对切片顺地层层面追踪,勾绘出各种地层现象,并以地层学的观点加以解释。该方法在吉林探区扶新南部地区的应用中,对于识别河道的展布趋势取得了较好的效果,而且发现了多期叠置的扇型沉积体。另外,还可指导反演数据体的解释,做到对岩性体从定性到定量的描述。  相似文献   

一种基于核学习的储集层渗透率预测新方法   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

杨斌  匡立春  施泽进  孙中春 《物探化探计算技术》2005,27(2):119-123

基于核学习的支持向量机,是一种采用结构风险最小化原则代替传统经验风险最小化原则的新型统计学习方法,具有完备的理论基础。这里提出了核学习技术在储集层非均质特性描述中渗透率参数预测的新用途。在复杂地层中,基于支持向量机的智能和自适应模式识别能力而建立了常规测井多参数信息输入的渗透率预测模型,然后对实际油田储集层渗透率进行了预测。与常规线性回归模型预测结果相对比,所提出的方法更易于使用,很少受不确定因素的影响,并具有较强的信息整合能力以及更高的预测准确性和可信度。  相似文献   

现阶段地表油气化探技术难题与发展对策   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

姚俊梅 《物探与化探》2005,29(6):477-480,486

虽然地表油气化探方法技术已取得显著的应用效果, 但是由于成功率计算标准不同及方法技术本身的缺陷, 导致人们对方法的认同度较低。当前, 地表油气化探技术的发展, 一方面要以可靠的实验依据、严谨的数理推导及理论模型应对来自方法技术本身的挑战, 另一方面也要利用其快速、廉价和直接的优势, 加强与地质、遥感、非震物探等方法综合应用。  相似文献